The Twinstalker Re-Debut

I am Twinstalker.  Don't let the E.D. in front of the name fool you.  It's Twinstalker, and I don't care where you split the name, after the n or after the s.  I'm trying, once again, to start blogging.  It's hard, it really is.  It's hard to blog, and it's f'ing ridiculous to blog well.  From the little I've attempted, I've learned a few tidbits that make it easier to try this one more time.  I guess I'll list them in no particular order:

• Feed the beast.  That's what John Bonnes called it one night over his sixth Guinness at Bryant Lake Bowl. A blog really cannot work without entries.  Shocker, huh?  Sounds simple, but the single most difficult aspect of blogging is finding the time and energy to write what even you consider interesting material.
• Blog on a set schedule.  Writing an entry every day is extremely difficult, but you need consistency both for yourself and your imagined audience.  Every weekday or specific days during the week is best.  This will be really difficult for me, as I am more apt to get my material from my comments on other blogs, which I read haphazardly.
• Find your voice.  There are many issues with my first attempts at blogging, but the foremost one for me is that I could never find my writing voice.  In other words, what persona will you take on?  I post on Gopher Illustrated quite often, and my persona there ranges from philosopher to cynic to the anti-fan because, as one example, I've never found anything good to say about Rashede Hageman's play.  But at least it's a voice.
• Somehow make your blog unique.  The last thing you need to waste your time at is doing something that someone else already does.  Many bloggers are unique simply because they possess the tool of information.  Others do very fine analysis.  I hope I can eventually find that which makes this blog unique.

Mostly what I do here in this blog is find fault with decision-making.  I am an advanced-degreed statistician who has studied game theory, and it blows my mind how horrible the decision-making can be from people around here who get paid millions to make decisions.  Terry Ryan, Ron Gardenhire, Tubby Smith, Flip Saunders, and many others have made and continue to make some of the worst decisions one can imagine.  How's that for hyperbole?  It's no coincidence that sports in this town have basically been crap.  Teams that should be competitive are not, teams that are somewhat competitive should be winning championships--I'm looking at you, Twins org c. 2002-2010.  It's hard to believe we've stayed fans all this time.  Some things are changing, though, and when I look at the sports leadership now installed at the University of Minnesota, I get genuinely excited.  They get it now.  There are still likely some issues, but the decision-making from President Kaler to A.D. Norwood Teague to coaches Kill and Pitino is light years above the old regime.  That's a start, and I'm looking forward to a sports renaissance in this town. 

What I like about Al Nolen

People who know me are pretty sure I'm not high on Gopher freshman point guard Al Nolen, but the opposite is actually true...I just don't think he's a star player, and as a fan I want the Gophers to have all star players in their starting lineup like most big-time programs do. It's a case of setting my expectations high. I want a team that is obviously the best team in the Big 10 prior to the season because we've recruited so well. Great, good, average or bad I'll cheer like hell for (and criticize) them once the season starts. And then the most important thing, infinitely more important than what they look like on paper, I want the Gophers to win the Big Ten and have a shot at the national title.

I've always held those expectations, because I believe without them, you allow yourself to slide into taking what recruits you can get. And that's what has happened with previous Gophers coach Dan Monson and what I thought happened with his recruiting in 2007. I thought Blake Hoffarber was a great shooter in high school and a very good player. I didn't see that translating well necessarily to college, at least not early, though I never doubted his talent. Of course, I didn't expect the Gophers would have Tubby Smith coaching him.

As for Nolen, I was pretty sure (along with many) that he wasn't Big Ten caliber, though I almost always qualified that I hadn't seen him play. It was someone Monson could get. He didn't score in high school, and who doesn't score? A Big Ten quality player is going to score at will in HS. When I finally got a chance to watch him play, it quickly became obvious that the Gophers were better with Nolen on the floor. But I also noticed he wasn't ready for the Big Ten right then. His great plays were at the expense of some pretty bad competition, including the guards Iowa State put out there. I thought quality guards would shut him down and make his play inconsequential and ugly, and the Florida State game seemingly proved me right. At that point I still wasn't sure if he could be a positive impact against good teams once the Big 10 season started.

What I started to notice after FSU is that I was most comfortable with Nolen and Hoffarber on the floor. Nolen's basketball IQ is extremely high, so much higher than anyone Monson coached. We haven't seen a true point guard in these parts for a long time. He is truly selfless on the floor, and it occurs to me that's why he wasn't scoring in high school. When Al Nolen is ready to play in the B10 against the top teams and top guards, I have no doubt that the team will play on a high level, relatively, because of him. Is that now? We'll find out here quickly as the Gophers play the Indiana Hoosiers in just a few hours.

Nolen is a good ball-handler, a hard-working defensive player with quick hands, a good passer who will get better when he understands he can't get away with every fancy pass against better competition, and he creates a sense of calm on the floor. I think he has a soft shot that will eventually be a dangerous weapon on the rare occasions when needed. He has the ability to penetrate somewhat, though we still need to see whether he can take top guards and finish. I don't see it right now, but there is potential. I'm unsure of his half-court defense on the ball, whether he can guard a guy like Indiana's Eric Gordon and his penetration, but I have no doubts that part of his defense will develop if it's not there already.

I'm of the belief, though, that there is no reason we can't recruit great players, including a great PG. I have no doubt that if Nolen is the primary PG for a very good squad that the Gophers can possibly win the Big 10 in 2-3 years. But he'll only really be a star in our memories, much as Arriel McDonald. A 5-star PG recruit who is an amazing threat when he has the ball can be the ultimate weapon. And an experience Nolen teamed with someone like that will be a perfect combo to lead the Gophers to the promised land.

Some people have compared Nolen to 1994 recruit and Final Four PG Eric Harris. I agree, except I think Nolen might be even better as a freshman. Of course, not as much was needed from Harris on that year's NCAA tourney team. The talent on this Gophers version is spotty, and there is no way this team dances without Nolen. I think Nolen is solid now and will end up being very good, but I just don't see him ever being a star, the definition of which is the ability to completely take over a game and change its outcome on his own. He'll always be a solid piece, though.

Tonight we have an opportunity to evaluate where he is on the ladder toward becoming a quality Big Ten point guard.

Golden Gopher Point Guard Depth

Today at the Star Tribune site, blogger Myron Medcalf ponders the Golden Gopher point guard situation going forward. It's funny that a number of the comments were such that Medcalf shouldn't even be worried about something so far in the future. I guess a lot of people see freshman Al Nolen and sophomore Kevin Payton as enough talent to hold down the position for the next few years. And hope, of course, that some gifted PG comes to the Gophers in 2010.

I don't think that's a situation that takes care of itself, and it's worth addressing.

Don't get me wrong. I think Al Nolen is a decent ballplayer who will improve enough to be adequate for a middle of the road Minnesota team. But as a fan I've never strived for mediocrity in my favorite sports teams, even when they've hit rock bottom. My thoughts on the issue of the Gophers point guard situation going forward:


1. Nolen will be okay/decent/good but never an impact player for a top team. He should play major minutes until an impact PG can come in to run the show. Nolen, once he gets a couple of years under his belt, is talented enough to play an effective 15-20 per game for a top team, which should be the goal for Minnesota: to be a top Big Ten team in 2-3 years.


2. Incoming recruit Devoe Joseph probably is not a PG and therefore might not make sense there. That he wants to play it is understandable, because he knows that's his best ticket to the NBA. But that's not something you just switch to post-HS. We'll see if he has aptitude there, and if he does, the problem is actually solved. I highly doubt he'll be a better point than Nolen, though.


3. Washington PG Adrian Oliver has expressed some interest in playing for the coach who tried to recruit him to Kentucky. Oliver has no chance of being a Gopher. First, the reports make me think he simply isn't any better than Nolen. Add to that his lack of production, some injury history, and a transfer year (he could play in January, 2009), and this California kid who wants to stay close to home doesn't appear a good fit in any way.


4. Payton isn't good enough. He's clearly shown that he doesn't have the talent to be a decent PG, much less an impactful one. Payton actually would be an ideal candidate to transfer, except that he's already used up his redshirt year. Transferring to another D1 school would leave him with only one year of competition. Transferring to a D2 program, where his talent would make him potentially a big fish, could solve the problem if a top PG were to replace him.


5. As stated, for the Gophers to rise to an elite level 2-3 years from now, Nolen will need to share time with a very good/great PG. One of the most common themes for an elite team is that when its point guard has the ball, the probability of team scoring quickly goes up considerably. That means the PG is a threat to knock down the jumper, drive the lane, pull up from the dribble, get to the basket, finish, and get the ball to his teammates in a position for them to score more easily than if he hadn't touched the ball.

Nolen right now displays all these traits at a very low level for a BCS point guard. He does seem to possess them all, however, and the expectation is that he will improve each of them with experience and confidence. I just don't see that he can improve enough to be more than average, which is fine as a starter for a middling team or as a backup for a top team. I prefer thinking in terms of a top team, and filling the holes necessary under such an expectation.

6. Unfortunately, there are currently only three scholarships available between 2008 and 2009, the Gophers probably need a big man (maybe still this coming year), and the other two scholarships are waiting for local products Royce White and Rodney Williams (both 3's). So I would expect Unknown BigMan, White, and Williams to get the offers. And as we've seen, Tubby Smith can be very enticing with his charm and his quick elevation of the program from the rock bottom to something worth talking about, so I actually expect the the three openings to be filled by these three commodities.


Note that the reason the Gophers need a big guy is that two years from now they will only have then-sophs Ralph Sampson and Colton Iverson, with then-senior Damian Johnson playing a smaller 4 . They need depth up front, and then-junior Paul Carter is definitely not a 4. A team needs at least four 4's and 5's to compete.


So unless we give up on or lose White or Williams (both rated in Rivals top 50), or unless there is a transfer (unlikely, it seems), there is no room for a PG until 2010, and that's troublesome. What's the plan, Tubby?

Random Friday

Go shopping, eat leftovers. Seriously, it's Black Friday.

• Tom Powers, columnist for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, is an idiot. Speaking about Torii Hunter leaving the Twins, Powers states

  For the first time, the organization lost a player it didn't want to lose. For the first time, it couldn't come up with a way to keep a key component...(the Twins) clearly wanted to keep Hunter. If they didn't, they wouldn't have offered him $45 million toward the end of last season.

  The Twins did not want Hunter. In fact, they only needed him for another season or two.
  If the Twins really wanted Torii Hunter they would have offered him five years. They offered the right amount of money per season, and offering it for two more seasons would actually have been cheaper, given inflation and accounting for the extra revenue they'll have then. Their three-year offer they knew had no chance of being accepted. And given that, no, Tom, they didn't want Hunter.

• Congratulations to Tubby Smith on a very nice initial recruiting class. Rivals.com ranks incoming freshmen Ralph Sampson #74, Devoe Joseph #82, and Colton Iverson #136. Junior-to-be Devron Bostic is rated the #4 Juco player, while Paul Carter is not rated due to his current freshman status. The class is by no means a top ten class but could rank in the top 25 when all is said and done. Tubby got off to a late start for the 2008 class, but he quickly made the state of Minnesota notice that big-time college basketball is on its way back to Williams Arena and that the Monson era is so, so over.
• Remember Nate Garth, Tubby's first commitment? I will admit to watching video on the kid after he committed, and it was so obvious that he would be overmatched at point guard in the Big 10, I prepared myself to wait until 2009 for the first quality Gopher recruits. Tubby must have also noticed, because Garth's offer was quickly yanked.
• The Gopher football recruiting has gone extremely well so far. Currently Rivals ranks Minnesota as having the #27 class, right between Penn St. at 26 and Wisconsin at 28. While the Gophers are unlikely to catch Penn St., they are also unlikely to fall behind Wisconsin, giving Minnesota the 5th best class in the Big 10 after Ohio St. (9), Michigan (12), Illinois (17) and Penn St. Wisconsin has only one more scholarship to offer, while the Gophers have five left. Rivals uses the highest rated 22 recruits to determine class rankings.

Random Friday

Today some musings:

• This morning Jim Souhan said a whole lot of nothing about the U of M's new coach Tubby Smith but made some time for digs at football coach Tim Brewster, saying:
  

  His supporters believe Brewster will become the next rebuilding wizard to alter the college football landscape, but to date he has proven only that he's not ready to coach in the Big Ten.

Not only to does Souhan fail to offer some of that proof, he fails to provide even one example of poor coaching. Heck, even Mack Brown at Texas and Coach K at Duke make mistakes (don't they?), so it shouldn't be that difficult to come up with something to support that statement.

• Joe Christensen reports on the Johan Santana trade talks, and comes up with this interesting bit:

  Specifically, the Yankees plan on making a strong push if the two-time Cy Young Award winner becomes available. They appeared to be holding back their top prospects in the (Miguel) Cabrera discussions to make a run at Santana.

Forgetting about what the Twins might do with or get for Santana, how messed up is baseball that one team can go after and probably get the very best pitcher and one of the top three hitters, and then pay them in perpetuity? Ok, ok, the Yankees appear to be replacing Arod with Cabrera in this scenario. Still, the gall and balls of it all.

• Over at Gopher Illustrated, the suggestion was made that Tubby Smith should start Lawrence Westbrook with senior Lawrence McKenzie and frosh Al Nolen. My goodness, what a D II world we live in still around these parts. The previously scatterbrained/scattergunning Westbrook apparently looked good at Minnesota State Southwest St. (is that really the name now?) on Wednesday. Gopher fans expectations are such now that a victory over a small division school is the basis of joy and conclusions on what the coach should do. Is it January 5 that the Gophers open the season at Michigan St.? Now there's your reality.
• Tomorrow I run twenty miles with my running partner Meantforme. While she tends to motor through this kind of torture, I rarely feel good running that kind of distance. The next marathon is a mere few weeks away, and I'm nowhere near ready for it. Surviving 20 is my only goal right now and, truly, to do that I have to eat right, hydrate right, sleep right. There really is nothing worse than giving up your Friday happy hours. I used to live for those damn things.