The Twinstalker Re-Debut

I am Twinstalker.  Don't let the E.D. in front of the name fool you.  It's Twinstalker, and I don't care where you split the name, after the n or after the s.  I'm trying, once again, to start blogging.  It's hard, it really is.  It's hard to blog, and it's f'ing ridiculous to blog well.  From the little I've attempted, I've learned a few tidbits that make it easier to try this one more time.  I guess I'll list them in no particular order:

• Feed the beast.  That's what John Bonnes called it one night over his sixth Guinness at Bryant Lake Bowl. A blog really cannot work without entries.  Shocker, huh?  Sounds simple, but the single most difficult aspect of blogging is finding the time and energy to write what even you consider interesting material.
• Blog on a set schedule.  Writing an entry every day is extremely difficult, but you need consistency both for yourself and your imagined audience.  Every weekday or specific days during the week is best.  This will be really difficult for me, as I am more apt to get my material from my comments on other blogs, which I read haphazardly.
• Find your voice.  There are many issues with my first attempts at blogging, but the foremost one for me is that I could never find my writing voice.  In other words, what persona will you take on?  I post on Gopher Illustrated quite often, and my persona there ranges from philosopher to cynic to the anti-fan because, as one example, I've never found anything good to say about Rashede Hageman's play.  But at least it's a voice.
• Somehow make your blog unique.  The last thing you need to waste your time at is doing something that someone else already does.  Many bloggers are unique simply because they possess the tool of information.  Others do very fine analysis.  I hope I can eventually find that which makes this blog unique.

Mostly what I do here in this blog is find fault with decision-making.  I am an advanced-degreed statistician who has studied game theory, and it blows my mind how horrible the decision-making can be from people around here who get paid millions to make decisions.  Terry Ryan, Ron Gardenhire, Tubby Smith, Flip Saunders, and many others have made and continue to make some of the worst decisions one can imagine.  How's that for hyperbole?  It's no coincidence that sports in this town have basically been crap.  Teams that should be competitive are not, teams that are somewhat competitive should be winning championships--I'm looking at you, Twins org c. 2002-2010.  It's hard to believe we've stayed fans all this time.  Some things are changing, though, and when I look at the sports leadership now installed at the University of Minnesota, I get genuinely excited.  They get it now.  There are still likely some issues, but the decision-making from President Kaler to A.D. Norwood Teague to coaches Kill and Pitino is light years above the old regime.  That's a start, and I'm looking forward to a sports renaissance in this town. 

Monroe, Tyner, and all things Santana

Yesterday the Minnesota Twins apparently completed their recent mission of solidifying the corner OF/DH block of their lineup with the signing of OF Craig Monroe to a one-year, $3.82 million contract. The price was the minimum the Twins could offer the former anti-Twin, and about $1-2 million more than Monroe would have made on the open market had the Twins non-tendered him today.

Chances are negotiations went something like this for Bill Smith:

Twins: We'd like to have you for 2008 at half your 2007 salary.
CM: I made $4.8 in 2007, you have to offer $3.82.
Twins: True, but if we don't, how much do you think a team will give you?
CM: We'll find out, but since I have no ties whatsoever to the Twins, I doubt that I'll end up with you.
Twins: (Blink)

It's the second time in weeks that Smith has blinked and been bluffed into giving up a lot more than he planned to. Tampa Bay hooked the new GM with Delmon Young and by the end of the negotiations not only got Smith to remove the erratic and expensive Juan Rincon from the equation, but convinced our young pup to give up a top five Twins prospect in Eduardo Morlan.

So now the Twins pay too much for a limited Monroe. Fortunately, Monroe has an upside, and that is his reasonable success against left handed pitchers. His downside, of course, is his horridness against righties. Other than the price, this would seem a perfect move for the Twins. Young and Michael Cuddyer will play full-time, and Jason Kubel should only play against righthanders, leaving Monroe to pick up Kubel's ABs against lefties.

Unfortunately, the Twins have shown themselves under Ron Gardenhire to not fully understand their players' limitations, and to play players in situations with higher risk of failure. Whereas 200-250 (expensive) Monroe ABs against mostly lefty pitching would optimize the Twins hitting and run production, Smith gives Gardy the go-ahead to continue to sabotage the offense by saying:

“We wouldn’t have signed Craig Monroe if we didn’t think he would get enough at-bats,” Smith said.

And so it goes.


--News is leaking out that the Twins are non-tendering Jason Tyner. It's understandable, but it's hard to know how to feel about this. As a starting corner OF or especially a DH, Tyner can't come close to providing the necessary offense. As a fifth OF sort who can run, steal, play all three positions, and get a timely basehit against a righthander, Tyner has some value. It will be interesting to see if the Twins re-sign Tyner, perhaps to a minor league contract.

--Rumors are the Twins are getting closer to a Johan Santana deal with the Red Sox, particularly a deal including Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson, and another prospect. While this is not a deal the Twins should be accepting at this time, let's not forget the alternatives. It can be worse. Ellsubury is a sure thing to be at least a solid AL CF. Lowrie, if he can play defense well enough, will get on base as well as Justin Morneau does, probably better. There's a Todd Walker similarity there for me. Each of these players will be under the Twins control for at least six seasons.

In terms of this deal, here's how I rank the alternatives:

1. Sign Santana. The Twins have the money. It's more about whether they can build around the $22 million man.

2. Insist on Jon Lester with Ellsbury. It's not like the Twins couldn't sweeten the pot here. If Santana goes to the Red Sox, that pushes Lester back anyway. Maybe throw them back Brian Duensing, who's close yet doesn't need to be protected?

3. Wait for an offer out of nowhere. I would rather have Adam Jones or Philip Hughes as the centerpiece, but the extras added thus far have not impressed me. If the Angels offer Jerod Weaver, Brandon Wood, and Reggie Willits, the Twins have to do this. Likewise, if the Dodgers offer Chad Billingsley, Andy LaRoche, and Matt Kemp. I certainly don't expect the latter, but the former doesn't seem that out of whack for the Angels.

4. Take the deal as offered. Ellsbury himself is a haul, though he may currently be the most overrated player out there. I would not expect him to be more than adequate in 2008. Lowrie has a chance to be a very solid player for years, and the deeper prospects may also turn into useful pieces or even starters. That's a huge bounty compared to:

5. Get two picks as compensation at the end of 2008. The two picks would likely cost $2 million and probably won't ever be key pieces to the Twins. If they are, it will be 5-8 years from now.

There's a vast difference between 4 and 5, bridged only slightly by the unlikely shot Santana gives the Twins of making the playoffs.